Playbook 1: Should we change our pricing?
Question: If we raise the price or add a cheaper tier, how many customers stay, switch, or churn?Screen for the right population
Add a screening question so you only interview people the decision affects, such as “Do you
personally pay for this subscription?” Getting this wrong is the most common way a pricing
study goes sideways.
Describe the change neutrally
Give replicas the scenario (current price, the new options) without editorializing. Avoid
lines like “unfortunately we have to raise prices.”
Offer symmetric choices
Present accept, downgrade, and cancel as balanced options, and ask for the reasoning behind
the choice.
Validated: on the Disney+ 2022 price increase, replicas predicted the accept/switch/cancel
distribution with 91% accuracy and screened the paying population within 4.3% of ground truth.
They correctly captured that about 94% of subscribers simply absorbed the increase.
Playbook 2: Which ad creative should we run?
Question: Of two or more creatives, which will actually perform?Target your real audience
Build a cohort that matches who the ad is for, for example “women 22 to 35 earning $100K+”.
Show the creatives as stimuli
Upload the ads and let the researcher present them during the interview. Use the Compare Ad
Creatives template.
Ask reaction-first questions
Get unaided reactions (“what would you do after seeing this?”) before any forced comparison,
and never name the weakness you suspect.
Validated: across near-identical ad pairs, replicas picked the higher-reach ad 89% of the time
versus 65% for a general AI. In a paid-ads case study with Mera NYC, replicas predicted the winner
72% to 28%, matching the real result: the winning ad earned a much higher return on ad spend. The
general AI predicted the opposite winner.
Playbook 3: Which product will the market choose?
Question: Given a lineup of options at different price points, what does the market pick?Use a representative cohort
For market-share questions, weight the cohort to your target population so the distribution is
meaningful.
Lay out the full lineup
Present each option and its trade-offs, then ask which they would choose and what drove it:
price, features, brand, or social signaling.
Validated: on the iPhone 17 lineup, replicas matched real Q4 2025 sales distribution with 97.6%
accuracy, reaching the same conclusion through simulated individual decisions. That held up even
against models that had market-share data in their training set.
Playbook 4: What is this worth to customers?
Question: What will people actually pay?Use the Test Pricing template
It asks a proven set of pricing questions that find the range people will pay, instead of the
leading “how much would you pay?”
Anchor to a real product
Ask about a specific item the replica was already considering, and keep explicit prices out of
the question text.
Validated: across about 300 products ($20 to $2,200), replicas predicted what people would pay
about as closely as that same person would land on a different day.
Before You Launch Any of These
Write neutral questions
Framing distorts results more for AI than for humans. Get this right first.
Plan how you'll read it
Know what a surprising result means before you see one.
